Risk and Reward

How do you determine proper risk and reward in trading? I don't think anyone can ever provide a definitive answer to that question because its is akin to asking how many layers do you need to walk outside of my apartment in New York City in the winter. Right now as the thermometer reads a balmy 8 degrees Fahrenheit as I type this at 3 in the morning, you need about four layers just to make it to the coffee shop across the street. But just last week you could have made the same journey in a T shirt without feeling a chill.

Trading, like the addled, globally warmed weather of my great metropolis is an imprecise and a highly volatile proposition. Therefore the question of risk and reward always changes with the circumstances of the moment. The traditional view on risk and reward is to set the ration to at least 2:1 - risking half the amount of pips as you are trying to make, so that if your profit target was 100 then your stop would be 50.

In theory this sounds like a terrific plan. You only need to be correct 4 out of 10 times to make money. However, I've never met a real life trader who actually put this principle into practice. I've received plenty of such advice on this matter from analysts, strategists, trading coaches and a whole host of others who have never wagered so much as their breakfast money on a trade, but I have never seen the 2:1 ratio employed by anyone who actually makes their living from the market.

Why?

The primary reason is that most people who never trade, do not realize that there is no such thing as reward in the market. There is only risk. Markets are not like factories that manufacture profits to your order. In fact, markets do everything possible to frustrate your goals. Imagine a trade where you risk 100 points with a profit target of 200. Initially the trade goes your way and the floating p/l quickly rises until it reaches +199. Disciplined in your 2:1 strategy you wait for the profit target to hit so you can book another good trade. But guess what? The market suddenly stalls and then reverses. You watch in horror as the positive trade quickly turns negative and then drops through your stop. What was you loss? On paper you lost 100 points, but in actuality you lost -299 points ( 100 points on your stop and -199 you did not book). Welcome to real life trading where the “theoretical” 2:1 risk reward is far more elusive than you think.

The fact of the matter is that profits cannot be forecast in the market. The only thing you can control is risk. That's why we always trade with two units. That's why we always take short first targets and that's why we assiduously control risk by trailing our stops. It may not be glamorous, but its the only way we know how deal with risk and reward at BKT.

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5 Tips for Trading During Volatile Markets

Increased volatility leads many traders to seeing an increase in trading opportunities. The huge market swings trigger thoughts of monumental upside, but also for potential loss especially if traders do not take the necessary precautions. During times of volatility, traders need to adjust their strategy to compensate for erratic market. When trading during these market conditions, traders should follow the rules below.

1. Be More Selective Before Placing Trades

Wanting to take advantage of all the trading opportunities that present themselves in volatile markets, traders are tempted to place an increase number of trades. This temptation should be avoided. It is important to remember that in volatile times, losses are likely to be big. Before placing a trading, assess risk tolerance levels. Determine the level of risk that is acceptable for the trader both psychologically and financially before placing any trades.

2. Use Less Leverage

During high market volatility, losses can be traumatic. With the average trading range increased in volatile times traders should be considering how leverage will affect trades. At a one percent or even a half percent margin, investors should be mindful of how much leverage or even the size position being traded can affect their portfolio. In normal market conditions, placing a 2 lot position is fine when you are looking to make about 50-100 pips. During a more volatile time, when the potential loss is 100-200 pips, it stops being an effective risk to reward ratio. To compensate traders should look to taking on smaller trading positions, in this case only one lot as opposed to the average 2 lot position.

3. Trade with More Discipline

Traders should always follow their predetermined trading strategy regardless of market condition. During volatile markets, this is even more important to use that same level of restraint. Traders must adhere to any set stops, contingency plans or risk management benchmarks without hesitation. This will help to define how much risk is taken should price action be uncontrollable. Without this level of discipline and self control losses can be great.

4. Tighten Stops

Many traders are hesitant to use tighter stops in volatile markets because they see the large swings increasing the likelihood that the position will be taken out. Having tighter stops can also provide great risk managers in times of extreme volatility. For example, on a EURUSD trade, rather than setting an 80 pip stop to protect your position, consider placing a 50-60 pip stop. This will insure the protection of your currency position and if the stop is broken, there is a high likelihood that the trend will continue lower and the stop took you out before you could potentially lose more money. The width of the stop being set does depend on the currency pair being trading as some pairs have wider ranges. In a Yen cross like the GBPJPY or AUDJPY, traders may be more likely to have wider stops as their average daily range is 50% more than that of the EUR/USD. With that said, stops during volatile market conditions should not as wide as before. Instead of a stop 100 pips below entry, traders may consider a 25 pip reduction and have a 75 pip stop. Below is a chart showing the EURUSD and the GBPJPY on the same very volatile day in the forex market. The EURUSD had an impressive range of nearly 600 pips! The GBPJPY far dominated though with nearly a 2000 pip trading range.

5. Be Prepared

It also helps a trader to know what is causing the current spate of volatility in the markets in order to be prepared for the unexpected. As such, an investor can accommodate their strategy to the market environment and not just the currency pair being traded. The first of these considerations is accounting for emotions in a market: is fear currently driving the market lower? Or is it buyer's mania that is keeping the bullish tone alive? Traders' overreaction and emotion tend to push markets to overextended targets. This fact alone creates volatility through simple supply and demand. Volatility can also, and more than likely will, be sparked by economic events. In this instance, market participants may interpret fundamental data differently and not as cut and dry as the more novice trader. A perfect example of this is usually monthly manufacturing reports that are released in pretty much all industrial economies. The classic scenario has the market honed in on a particular number for the month. However, traders young and old will sometimes wonder why the market sold off if manufacturing showed positive growth. The answer is simple. The market had a different interpretation and positions were violently reshaped and shifted. These tend to create great opportunities for some and horrible memories for others. Below is an hourly chart of the EUR/USD during ISM Manufacturing for October 1, 2008. Here we can see the huge price gap that occurred due to market volatility as well as the resulting trend. Panic and erratic momentum can additionally be found in certain market environments. Not to be confused with fear or greed, panic selling and buying can create very choppy and relatively untradeable markets. These conditions will lead some to flip flop their positions while leaving others gaping at the fact that the position was right, only to be stopped out prematurely. These two common examples will create further panic and volatility as traders abandon their own individual strategy for the possibility of instant profits or stoppage revenge. As a result, a vicious cycle of volatility ensues until a definitive market direction can be established.

The simple rules above, and a task of getting to know the current trading environment, can empower every trader through the ranks. Although some relate volatility with difficult and untouchable markets, opportunities continue to remain abound in these less than attractive conditions to those focused and fortunate.

By following these five simple steps, trading in volatile market conditions should be a little simpler. Don't forget to adjust leverage based on volatility, follow your trading plan, tighten your stops and know why you are getting into a trade before you place it.

Basic Concepts V: Types of Orders

The forex market provides different kinds of orders for trading. The following are some major types of orders that can be found on forex trading stations.

Market orders - A buy or sell order in which the forex firm is to execute the order at the best available current price. It is also called at the market.

Entry orders - A request from a client to a forex firm to buy or sell a specified amount of a particular currency pair at a specific price. The order will be filled once the requested price is hit.

Stop Loss orders - An order placed to close a position when it reaches a specified price. It is designed to limit a trader's loss on a position. If the position is opened with buying a currency pair, the stop loss order would be a request to sell the position when the price fall to the specified level. And vice versa. Traders are strongly recommended to use stop loss orders to limit their losses. It is also important to use stop loss orders when investors may enter a situation where they are unable to monitor their portfolio for an extended period.

Take Profit Orders - An order placed to close a position when it reaches a predetermined profit exit price. It is designed to lock in a position's profit. Once the price surpasses the predefined profit-taking price, the take profit order becomes market order and closes the position.

Good Until Cancelled (GTC) - In online forex trading, most of the orders are GTC, meaning an order will be valid until it is cancelled, regardless of the trading session. The trader must specify that they wish a GTC order to be cancelled before it expires. Generally, the entry orders, stop loss orders and take profit orders in online forex trading are all GTC orders.

The above are the basic orders types available in most of them trading systems. Some trading systems may offer more sophisticated orders. Traders should be familiar with the different orders and make the most of them during trading.

Basic Concepts IV: Spreads

What is a spread?

In margin forex trading, there are two prices for each currency pair, a "bid" (or sell) price and an "ask" (or buy) price. The bid price is the rate at which traders can sell to the executing firm, while the ask price is the rate at which traders can buy from the executing firm.

Bid/Ask

For example, when you see the price quote of EUR/USD is 1.2881/1.2884 as in the above picture, the bid is 1.2881 whereas the ask is 1.2884. That means traders looking to sell must do so at 1.2881, those looking to buy must do so at 1.2884.

The difference between the bid and ask price is the spread, which constitutes the cost of the trade. In fact, all traded instruments - stocks, futures, currencies, bonds, etc. - have spread. If a trader buys at 1.2884 and then sells immediately, there is a 3-point loss incurred. The trader will need to wait for the market to move 3 points in favour of his/her position in order to break even. If the market moves 4 points in your favour, he/she starts to profit.

Many online trading firms like to promote margin forex trading as an almost cost-free instrument - commission free, no service charge, no hidden cost, etc. Traders should know that spread is the cost of trading, and in fact, it also represents the main source of revenue for the market maker, i.e. the forex trading company. The spread may appear to be a minuscule expense, but once you add up the cost of all of the trades, you will find it can eat away quite a portion of your account or your profit. If you check the price tag of a T-shirt before you buy it, do the same thing when you trade forex, look into the spread before you decide to trade. Your trade needs to surmount the spread (the cost) before it profits.

Know your expense: the spread

Spread is the cost to a trader. On the other hand, it is a revenue source of the firm who executes the trade. In the foreign exchange market, the spread can vary a lot depending on the executing firm and the parties involve. Inter-bank foreign exchange can have spread as tight as 1-2 pips, while the bank can widen the spread to 30-40 pips when dealing with individual customers. If you check out the spread of those small exchange shops nearby the tourists' sights, you may find the spread can go up to 400 to 600 pips.

Thanks to keen market competition, the spread of online forex trading is getting tighter in the past few years. For major online forex companies, their spreads are essentially the same. The table shows the typical spread of four major currencies of online forex trading at the time being:

Currency pairs	Spread
EUR/USD	2-3 pips
USD/JPY	3-4 pips
USD/CHF	5 pips
GBP/USD	5 pips

It is important for a trader to find the tightest spread as possible, but anything that is far lower than the typical spread is skeptical. The spread is the main source of revenue of a forex trading firm, if the firm cannot earn enough from the spread, there maybe some other hidden cost in the transaction.

Another point to note is that many market makers often widen the spread when market conditions become more volatile, thus increasing the cost of trading. For instance, if an economic number comes out that is off expectations, thereby creating a flood of buyers or sellers, the market maker may often widen the spread to restore the balance between buyers and sellers. As a result, traders should inquire about the execution practices of their clearing firm; firms with poor execution of orders and a tendency to widen spreads will ultimately result in higher trading costs for the end user.

Basic Concepts III: History and Recent Trend of Online FX Market

The recently technology advancement has broken down the barriers that used to stand between retail clients of FX market and the inter-bank market. The online forex trading revolution was originated in the late 90's, which opened its doors to retail clients by connecting the market makers to the end users. With the high-speed Internet access and powerful central processing unit, the online trading platform at home user's personal computer now serves as a gateway to the liquid FX market. Retail clients can now trade together with the biggest banks in the world, with similar pricing and execution. What used to be a game dominated and controlled by major inter-banks is becoming a common field where individuals can take the same opportunities as big banks do.

Technology breakthroughs not only changed the accessibility of the FX market, they also changed the way of how trading decisions were made. Research showed that, as opposed to unable to find profitable trading methodologies, the primary reason for failure as a speculator is a lack of discipline devoted to successful trading and risk management. The development of iron discipline is among the most challenging endeavors to which a trader can aspire. With the help of modern trading or charting softwares, traders can now develop trading systems that are comprehensive, with detailed trading plans including rules of entry, exit, and risk management model. Furthermore, traders can do backtesting and forward testing of a particular strategy on a demo account before commitment of capital.

When the system trading softwares were first introduced into the store of trading tools, traders would need programming skills and a strong background in mathematical technical analysis. With the effort of system trading software companies making their products more adaptable to mass market, the system trading softwares are now more user-friendly and simpler to use. At this point, non-programmers with basic understanding of mathematical technical analysis can enjoy the amusement of system trading.

While system trading might not provide the 'holy grails' of trading, it offers as prototypes or guidelines for beginners to starting trading with sound mathematical model and risk management. Over time, traders can develop trading systems that match their individual personality.

Basic Concepts II: Nature of the Foreign Exchange Market

The Foreign Exchange Market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market, which means that there is no central exchange and clearing house where orders are matched. With different levels of access, currencies are traded in different market makers:

The Inter-bank Market - Large commercial banks trade with each other through the Electronic Brokerage System (EBS). Banks will make their quotes available in this market only to those banks with which they trade. This market is not directly accessible to retail traders.

The Online Market Maker - Retail traders can access the FX market through online market makers that trade primarily out of the US and the UK. These market makers typically have a relationship with several banks on EBS; the larger the trading volume of the market maker, the more relationships it likely has.

Market Hours

Forex is a market that trades actively as long as there are banks open in one of the major financial centers of the world. This is effectively from the beginning of Monday morning in Tokyo until the afternoon of Friday in New York. In terms of GMT, the trading week occurs from Sunday night until Friday night, or roughly 5 days, 24 hours per day.

Price Reporting Trading Volume

Unlike many other markets, there is no consolidated tape in Forex, and trading prices and volume are not reported. It is, indeed, possible for trades to occur simultaneously at different prices between different parties in the market. Good pricing through a market maker depends on that market maker being closely tied to the larger market. Pricing is usually relatively close between market makers, however, and the main difference between Forex and other markets is that there is no data on the volume that has been traded in any given time frame or at any given price. Open interest and even volume on currency futures can be used as a proxy, but they are by no means perfect.

Introduction

The Foreign Exchange (often abbreviated as Forex or FX) market is the largest market in the world with daily trading volume of over 1.9 $trillion in September 2004*. With its high liquidity, low transaction cost and low entry barrier, the 24-hour market has attracted investors around the world.

The following articles aim to introduce the key concepts in forex trading, the terminologies and the characteristics of the FX market.

The articles first introduced the concept 'spread', which is the most important transaction cost in forex trading, how the spread is presented in the price quotes, what is the significance of it and what is the trick behind it. As most of the retail customers choose to trade forex with margin account, the articles then introduced what is margin trading, what is the significance of margin, how to trade a margin account and how to choose the correct leverage ratio.

In trading online forex, there are many types of orders that you can make to facilitate your trades. The articles then explained the rationale behind each type of orders, when and how to use each of them.

Being one of the most actively trading markets, the forex market is yet, may not be the most well known market. The articles then gave a little historical background and explained the nature of the forex market, and made an overall comparison of various trading markets. It also discussed the pros and cons of trading forex market and what are the recent trends.

Like any other trading instruments, traders should understand the terminologies and the basis of the market before he/she starts real trading. The above articles serve as an essential beginners' guide to the world of forex trading.