Weekly Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EUR/USD-EUR maintained a bullish tone the past week following through on its previous week strength to close higher at 1.14200. This is coming on the back of its recovery triggered off the 1.3831 level, its July 08’09 low and now leaves the pair targeting its bigger resistance residing at the 1.6339 level. A climb above there will open the door for higher prices towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high. This view is supported by its weekly RSI which has turned higher. Downside objective starts at the 1.4164 level, its July 17’09 high ahead of the 1.4072 level, its July 09’09 high with a turn below there leaving the pair targeting the 1.3897 level, its July 13’09 low. Further down, on a break of the latter, the 1.3831 level, its July 08’09 low will be aimed at before the 1.3748 level, representing its Jun 16’09 low. That level which doubles as its range bottom between the 1.4339 and 1.3748 levels is expected to cap declines if seen. On the whole, with a second week of upside seen, EUR looks to retest and possibly trigger the resumption of its medium term upside.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Mixed
Short Term – Bullish
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week: +0.71%
Past Month: -0.83%
Past Quarter: +5.89%
Year To Date: +1.65%

Weekly Range:
High -1.4290
Low -1.4118

The UK GDP data will trigger significant Sterling volatility

The UK GDP releases over the past few quarters have triggered substantial Sterling reactions with big currency moves following the data and there has been a clear bias towards weaker than expected releases. The net risk this time around certainly looks more balanced with potential upside risks. The most recent indicators have certainly suggested that the economy is stabilizing with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement from a very low base. The GDP data is subject to considerable revisions and there will again be the risk of an erratic figure given that much of the data is estimated. Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the quarterly number would almost certainly be negative and this is certainly the most likely outcome. The overall risks suggest that Sterling will react slightly more to worse than expected data while the data releases suggest that there are slight upside risks for the data with the potential for initial Sterling gains. The best strategy is likely to be to look for selling opportunities from any initial Sterling gains.